Effects of temperature variation and humidity on the death of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China
Identifieur interne : 000277 ( Pmc/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000276; suivant : 000278Effects of temperature variation and humidity on the death of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China
Auteurs : Yueling Ma [République populaire de Chine] ; Yadong Zhao [République populaire de Chine] ; Jiangtao Liu [République populaire de Chine] ; Xiaotao He [République populaire de Chine] ; Bo Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; Shihua Fu [République populaire de Chine] ; Jun Yan [République populaire de Chine] ; Jingping Niu [République populaire de Chine] ; Ji Zhou [République populaire de Chine] ; Bin Luo [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- The Science of the Total Environment [ 0048-9697 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Meteorological parameters are the important factors influencing the infectious diseases such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and influenza. This study aims to explore the association between Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths and weather parameters. In this study, we collected the daily death numbers of COVID-19, meteorological parameters and air pollutant data from 20 January 2020 to 29 February 2020 in Wuhan, China. Generalized additive model was applied to explore the effect of temperature, humidity and diurnal temperature range on the daily death counts of COVID-19. There were 2299 COVID-19 death counts in Wuhan during the study period. A positive association with COVID-19 daily death counts was observed for diurnal temperature range (r = 0.44), but negative association for relative humidity (r = −0.32). In addition, one unit increase in diurnal temperature range was only associated with a 2.92% (95% CI: 0.61%, 5.28%) increase in COVID-19 deaths in lag 3. However, both 1 unit increase of temperature and absolute humidity were related to the decreased COVID-19 death in lag 3 and lag 5, with the greatest decrease both in lag 3 [−7.50% (95% CI: −10.99%, −3.88%) and −11.41% (95% CI: −19.68%, −2.29%)]. In summary, this study suggests the temperature variation and humidity may also be important factors affecting the COVID-19 mortality.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138226
PubMed: NONE
PubMed Central: 7142681
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sort="Yan, Jun" uniqKey="Yan J" first="Jun" last="Yan">Jun Yan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0015">Department of General Surgery, Lanzhou University First Affiliated Hospital, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of General Surgery, Lanzhou University First Affiliated Hospital, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Gansu 730000</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Niu, Jingping" sort="Niu, Jingping" uniqKey="Niu J" first="Jingping" last="Niu">Jingping Niu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0005">Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Gansu 730000</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhou, Ji" sort="Zhou, Ji" uniqKey="Zhou J" first="Ji" last="Zhou">Ji Zhou</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0020">Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0025">Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, Shanghai 200030, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Shanghai Key Laboratory 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Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Gansu 730000</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhao, Yadong" sort="Zhao, Yadong" uniqKey="Zhao Y" first="Yadong" last="Zhao">Yadong Zhao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0010">Sexually Transmitted Disease and Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome Prevention Branch, Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Sexually Transmitted Disease and Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome Prevention Branch, Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Gansu 730000</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liu, Jiangtao" sort="Liu, Jiangtao" uniqKey="Liu J" first="Jiangtao" last="Liu">Jiangtao Liu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0005">Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Gansu 730000</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="He, Xiaotao" sort="He, Xiaotao" uniqKey="He X" first="Xiaotao" last="He">Xiaotao He</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0005">Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Gansu 730000</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Bo" sort="Wang, Bo" uniqKey="Wang B" first="Bo" last="Wang">Bo Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0005">Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Gansu 730000</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fu, Shihua" sort="Fu, Shihua" uniqKey="Fu S" first="Shihua" last="Fu">Shihua Fu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0005">Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Gansu 730000</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yan, Jun" sort="Yan, Jun" uniqKey="Yan J" first="Jun" last="Yan">Jun Yan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0015">Department of General Surgery, Lanzhou University First Affiliated Hospital, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of General Surgery, Lanzhou University First Affiliated Hospital, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Gansu 730000</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Niu, Jingping" sort="Niu, Jingping" uniqKey="Niu J" first="Jingping" last="Niu">Jingping Niu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0005">Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Gansu 730000</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhou, Ji" sort="Zhou, Ji" uniqKey="Zhou J" first="Ji" last="Zhou">Ji Zhou</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0020">Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0025">Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, Shanghai 200030, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, Shanghai 200030</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanghai 200030</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Luo, Bin" sort="Luo, Bin" uniqKey="Luo B" first="Bin" last="Luo">Bin Luo</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0005">Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Gansu 730000</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0025">Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, Shanghai 200030, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, Shanghai 200030</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanghai 200030</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0030">Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanghai 200030</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">The Science of the Total Environment</title><idno type="ISSN">0048-9697</idno><idno type="eISSN">1879-1026</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Meteorological parameters are the important factors influencing the infectious diseases such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and influenza. This study aims to explore the association between Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths and weather parameters. In this study, we collected the daily death numbers of COVID-19, meteorological parameters and air pollutant data from 20 January 2020 to 29 February 2020 in Wuhan, China. Generalized additive model was applied to explore the effect of temperature, humidity and diurnal temperature range on the daily death counts of COVID-19. There were 2299 COVID-19 death counts in Wuhan during the study period. A positive association with COVID-19 daily death counts was observed for diurnal temperature range (r = 0.44), but negative association for relative humidity (r = −0.32). In addition, one unit increase in diurnal temperature range was only associated with a 2.92% (95% CI: 0.61%, 5.28%) increase in COVID-19 deaths in lag 3. However, both 1 unit increase of temperature and absolute humidity were related to the decreased COVID-19 death in lag 3 and lag 5, with the greatest decrease both in lag 3 [−7.50% (95% CI: −10.99%, −3.88%) and −11.41% (95% CI: −19.68%, −2.29%)]. In summary, this study suggests the temperature variation and humidity may also be important factors affecting the COVID-19 mortality.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Almeida, S P" uniqKey="Almeida S">S.P. Almeida</name></author><author><name sortKey="Casimiro, E" uniqKey="Casimiro E">E. Casimiro</name></author><author><name sortKey="Calheiros, J" uniqKey="Calheiros J">J. Calheiros</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Anon" uniqKey="Anon">Anon.</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Barreca, A I" uniqKey="Barreca A">A.I. 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Sci Total Environ</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Sci. Total Environ</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>The Science of the Total Environment</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0048-9697</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1879-1026</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Elsevier B.V.</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7142681</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">S0048-9697(20)31739-3</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138226</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">138226</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Effects of temperature variation and humidity on the death of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au0005"><name><surname>Ma</surname><given-names>Yueling</given-names></name><xref rid="af0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref><xref rid="fn0005" ref-type="fn">1</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au0010"><name><surname>Zhao</surname><given-names>Yadong</given-names></name><xref rid="af0010" ref-type="aff">b</xref><xref rid="fn0005" ref-type="fn">1</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au0015"><name><surname>Liu</surname><given-names>Jiangtao</given-names></name><xref rid="af0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au0020"><name><surname>He</surname><given-names>Xiaotao</given-names></name><xref rid="af0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au0025"><name><surname>Wang</surname><given-names>Bo</given-names></name><xref rid="af0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au0030"><name><surname>Fu</surname><given-names>Shihua</given-names></name><xref rid="af0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au0035"><name><surname>Yan</surname><given-names>Jun</given-names></name><xref rid="af0015" ref-type="aff">c</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au0040"><name><surname>Niu</surname><given-names>Jingping</given-names></name><xref rid="af0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au0045"><name><surname>Zhou</surname><given-names>Ji</given-names></name><xref rid="af0020" ref-type="aff">d</xref><xref rid="af0025" ref-type="aff">e</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au0050"><name><surname>Luo</surname><given-names>Bin</given-names></name><email>luob@lzu.edu.cn</email><xref rid="af0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref><xref rid="af0025" ref-type="aff">e</xref><xref rid="af0030" ref-type="aff">f</xref><xref rid="cr0005" ref-type="corresp">⁎</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="af0005"><label>a</label>Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, People's Republic of China</aff><aff id="af0010"><label>b</label>Sexually Transmitted Disease and Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome Prevention Branch, Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, People's Republic of China</aff><aff id="af0015"><label>c</label>Department of General Surgery, Lanzhou University First Affiliated Hospital, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, People's Republic of China</aff><aff id="af0020"><label>d</label>Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China</aff><aff id="af0025"><label>e</label>Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, Shanghai 200030, People's Republic of China</aff><aff id="af0030"><label>f</label>Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030, People's Republic of China</aff><author-notes><corresp id="cr0005"><label>⁎</label>Corresponding author at: Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, People's Republic of China. <email>luob@lzu.edu.cn</email></corresp><fn id="fn0005"><label>1</label><p id="np0010">These authors contributed equally to this work.</p></fn></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>26</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on .</pmc-comment>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>1</day><month>7</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>26</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><volume>724</volume><fpage>138226</fpage><lpage>138226</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>20</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></date><date date-type="rev-recd"><day>24</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>25</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2020</copyright-year><copyright-holder>Elsevier B.V.</copyright-holder><license><license-p>Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract id="ab0005"><p>Meteorological parameters are the important factors influencing the infectious diseases such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and influenza. This study aims to explore the association between Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths and weather parameters. In this study, we collected the daily death numbers of COVID-19, meteorological parameters and air pollutant data from 20 January 2020 to 29 February 2020 in Wuhan, China. Generalized additive model was applied to explore the effect of temperature, humidity and diurnal temperature range on the daily death counts of COVID-19. There were 2299 COVID-19 death counts in Wuhan during the study period. A positive association with COVID-19 daily death counts was observed for diurnal temperature range (r = 0.44), but negative association for relative humidity (r = −0.32). In addition, one unit increase in diurnal temperature range was only associated with a 2.92% (95% CI: 0.61%, 5.28%) increase in COVID-19 deaths in lag 3. However, both 1 unit increase of temperature and absolute humidity were related to the decreased COVID-19 death in lag 3 and lag 5, with the greatest decrease both in lag 3 [−7.50% (95% CI: −10.99%, −3.88%) and −11.41% (95% CI: −19.68%, −2.29%)]. In summary, this study suggests the temperature variation and humidity may also be important factors affecting the COVID-19 mortality.</p></abstract><abstract abstract-type="graphical" id="ab0010"><title>Graphical abstract</title><p><fig id="f0020" position="anchor"><alt-text id="al0030">Unlabelled Image</alt-text><graphic xlink:href="ga1_lrg"></graphic></fig></p></abstract><abstract abstract-type="author-highlights" id="ab0015"><title>Highlights</title><p><list list-type="simple" id="l0005"><list-item id="li0005"><label>•</label><p id="p0005">First study to explore the effects of meteorological factors on COVID-19 mortality</p></list-item><list-item id="li0010"><label>•</label><p id="p0010">A positive association is found between daily death counts of COVID-19 and DTR.</p></list-item><list-item id="li0015"><label>•</label><p id="p0015">Absolute humidity is negatively associated with daily death counts of COVID-19.</p></list-item></list></p></abstract><kwd-group id="ks0005"><title>Keywords</title><kwd>COVID-19</kwd><kwd>Diurnal temperature range</kwd><kwd>Temperature</kwd><kwd>Humidity</kwd><kwd>Generalized additive model</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta><notes><p id="mi0005">Editor: Jianmin Chen</p></notes></front></pmc><affiliations><list><country><li>République populaire de Chine</li></country></list><tree><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Ma, Yueling" sort="Ma, Yueling" uniqKey="Ma Y" first="Yueling" last="Ma">Yueling Ma</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Fu, Shihua" sort="Fu, Shihua" uniqKey="Fu S" first="Shihua" last="Fu">Shihua Fu</name><name sortKey="He, Xiaotao" sort="He, Xiaotao" uniqKey="He X" first="Xiaotao" last="He">Xiaotao He</name><name sortKey="Liu, Jiangtao" sort="Liu, Jiangtao" uniqKey="Liu J" first="Jiangtao" last="Liu">Jiangtao Liu</name><name sortKey="Luo, Bin" sort="Luo, Bin" uniqKey="Luo B" first="Bin" last="Luo">Bin Luo</name><name sortKey="Luo, Bin" sort="Luo, Bin" uniqKey="Luo B" first="Bin" last="Luo">Bin Luo</name><name sortKey="Luo, Bin" sort="Luo, Bin" uniqKey="Luo B" first="Bin" last="Luo">Bin Luo</name><name sortKey="Niu, Jingping" sort="Niu, Jingping" uniqKey="Niu J" first="Jingping" last="Niu">Jingping Niu</name><name sortKey="Wang, Bo" sort="Wang, Bo" uniqKey="Wang B" first="Bo" last="Wang">Bo Wang</name><name sortKey="Yan, Jun" sort="Yan, Jun" uniqKey="Yan J" first="Jun" last="Yan">Jun Yan</name><name sortKey="Zhao, Yadong" sort="Zhao, Yadong" uniqKey="Zhao Y" first="Yadong" last="Zhao">Yadong Zhao</name><name sortKey="Zhou, Ji" sort="Zhou, Ji" uniqKey="Zhou J" first="Ji" last="Zhou">Ji Zhou</name><name sortKey="Zhou, Ji" sort="Zhou, Ji" uniqKey="Zhou J" first="Ji" last="Zhou">Ji Zhou</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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